A land forecast does not fully describe conditions on the water.
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The short answer
Check both the general Key West forecast and the National Weather Service marine forecast. Wind direction, wave conditions, thunderstorms, and operator limits can matter more than a simple rain percentage. Let the captain decide whether the boat can operate safely, but decide for yourself whether a rough ride, changed route, or poor visibility would still provide the experience you wanted.
Current Weather Conditions in Key West
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Use two different forecasts
The general forecast helps with heat, rain, and thunderstorm timing. The NWS Key West marine page addresses winds, seas, and marine hazards. Conditions can differ by location, route, and vessel.
Safety and enjoyment are separate questions
A captain may safely operate while the ride is rougher, visibility is poorer, or snorkeling is less comfortable than you expected. A reef trip diverted to protected water may still be enjoyable, but it is not the same trip. Ask what happens if the itinerary changes, which alternatives may be used, and what the cancellation policy covers.
Forecast changes before the cancellation windowAsk about route flexibility and policy before deciding.
Operator cancelsFollow the operator's stated rebooking or refund process.
Trip operates but conditions are marginal for youYour personal comfort decision may not qualify for a refund.